
#plotly is used for interactive web-based visualizations


#conda install -c plotly plotly


from plotly.offline import download_plotlyjs, init_notebook_mode, plot, iplot
from plotly.graph_objs import Scatter, Figure, Layout
import plotly
import plotly.express as px
import plotly.graph_objects as go
init_notebook_mode(connected=False)
import json
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np


df = pd.read_csv('/Users/minyan/Desktop/Python Project/AB testing_interactive display/Datasets/mobilegames_cookie_cats.csv')
df.head()


#check missing values
df.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 90189 entries, 0 to 90188
Data columns (total 5 columns):
 #   Column          Non-Null Count  Dtype 
---  ------          --------------  ----- 
 0   userid          90189 non-null  int64 
 1   version         90189 non-null  object
 2   sum_gamerounds  90189 non-null  int64 
 3   retention_1     90189 non-null  bool  
 4   retention_7     90189 non-null  bool  
dtypes: bool(2), int64(2), object(1)
memory usage: 2.2+ MB


#list how many null values for each feature
print(df.isnull().sum().sort_values(ascending=False))

retention_7       0
retention_1       0
sum_gamerounds    0
version           0
userid            0
dtype: int64


#count the number of players in each group
df.groupby('version').count()


df.groupby('version')['sum_gamerounds'].mean()

version
gate_30    52.456264
gate_40    51.298776
Name: sum_gamerounds, dtype: float64


df['sum_gamerounds'].describe()

count    90189.000000
mean        51.872457
std        195.050858
min          0.000000
25%          5.000000
50%         16.000000
75%         51.000000
max      49854.000000
Name: sum_gamerounds, dtype: float64


fig= px.box(df['sum_gamerounds'],y='sum_gamerounds')
#fig.show()

#plot and embed in ipython notebook!
iplot(fig,show_link=False)


#counting the number of players for each of gamerounds
plot_df = df.groupby('sum_gamerounds')['userid'].count()
plot_df

sum_gamerounds
0        3994
1        5538
2        4606
3        3958
4        3629
         ... 
2294        1
2438        1
2640        1
2961        1
49854       1
Name: userid, Length: 942, dtype: int64


plot_ga=df[df['version']=='gate_30'].groupby('sum_gamerounds')['userid'].count()
plot_gb=df[df['version']=='gate_40'].groupby('sum_gamerounds')['userid'].count()
#bins= [0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90, 100, 200, 400, 600]


# prepare data
trace1 = go.Histogram(
    x=plot_ga,
    opacity=0.75,
    name = 'gate_30',
    marker = dict(color ='rgba(171,50,97,0.6)'))

trace2 = go.Histogram(
    x=plot_gb,
    opacity=0.75,
    name = 'gate_40',
    marker = dict(color = 'rgba(12,50,196,0.6)'))

da = [trace1, trace2]

lay = go.Layout(barmode = 'overlay',
                title = 'gate_30 vs. gate_40',
                xaxis = dict(title ='Number of players for each of gamerounds'),
                yaxis = dict(title = 'Count'))

fig = go.Figure(data=da, layout=lay)
#fig.show()
iplot(fig, show_link=False)


#plot the distribution of players that played 0 to 100 game rounds
#prepare the dataframe


plot_df = df.groupby('sum_gamerounds')['userid'].count()
da = plot_df[:101]


lay = go.Layout()

fig=px.line(da)

fig.update_layout(title = 'the number of players that played the 0-100 game rounds during the first week',
                  showlegend = False,
                  xaxis = dict(title ='the number of players for each of gamerounds'),
                  yaxis = dict(title = 'Counts')
)

#fig.show()
iplot(fig, show_link=False)


#Null hypothesis: the difference of conversion rate between a/b group is by chance
#Alternative hypothesis: conversion rate of group a is statistical significant larger then group b


#overall one-day retention
#A common metric measuign how fun and engaging a game is 1-day retention
#calculate p_pool

p_pool = df['retention_1'].sum()/df['retention_1'].count()


#A/B test retention for each AB group
df.groupby('version')['retention_1'].mean()

version
gate_30    0.448188
gate_40    0.442283
Name: retention_1, dtype: float64


#Solution 1:calculate the mean difference
p_diff=df[df['version']== "gate_30"]['retention_1'].mean()-df[df['version']== "gate_40"]['retention_1'].mean()
p_diff

0.005905169787341458


#calculate pooled standard error 
count1=df[df['version']== "gate_30"]['retention_1'].count()
count2=df[df['version']== "gate_40"]['retention_1'].count()
se_pool = np.sqrt(p_pool*(1-p_pool)*(1/count1+1/count2))
se_pool

0.0033099127751024513


#for 95% confidence interval the value of Z is 1.96 or we can use pcipy package to calculate it
from scipy.stats import norm
alpha=0.05
z=round(norm.ppf(1-alpha/2),2)
#calculate marginal error
marginal_error = round((z*se_pool),4)
marginal_error

lb=p_diff-marginal_error
ub=p_diff+marginal_error

if lb>0:
    print('Reject null hypothesis.')
else:
    print('Do not reject null hypothesis')

Do not reject null hypothesis


#Solution 2: Bootstrapping: should we be confident in the difference?
#predict the statistics under the null hypothesis


#create a list with bootstrappwd means for each AB-group
boot_1d=[]
for i in range(1000):
    boot_mean=df.sample(frac = 1, replace = True).groupby('version')['retention_1'].mean()
    boot_1d.append(boot_mean)
    
#transform the list to a Dataframe
boot_1d=pd.DataFrame(boot_1d)
print(boot_1d)

version       gate_30   gate_40
retention_1  0.452483  0.436714
retention_1  0.452800  0.442973
retention_1  0.450380  0.440894
retention_1  0.450226  0.441863
retention_1  0.450695  0.437763
...               ...       ...
retention_1  0.451434  0.440337
retention_1  0.450811  0.441747
retention_1  0.447589  0.442619
retention_1  0.448143  0.442063
retention_1  0.448641  0.444298

[1000 rows x 2 columns]


# A kernel Density estimate plot of the boostrap distributiona
# Use distplot for density curve, along with Pandas
import plotly.figure_factory as ff
fig = ff.create_distplot([boot_1d[c] for c in boot_1d.columns], boot_1d.columns,
                          show_rug=False, show_hist=False)
fig.update_layout(title_text = 'A kernel density plot of the boostrap distribution')
#fig.show()
iplot(fig, show_link=False)


#add a column with the difference between AB group
boot_1d['diff'] = (boot_1d.gate_30 - boot_1d.gate_40)/boot_1d.gate_40*100
#plot the bootstrap % difference

da = pd.DataFrame(boot_1d['diff'])
fig = ff.create_distplot( [da[c] for c in da.columns], da.columns,
                          show_rug=False, show_hist=False)
fig.add_shape(type='line',
              x0=p_diff, y0=-0.01, x1=p_diff, y1=0.6,
              line=dict(color='red',width=2)
             )
fig.add_annotation(
                x=p_diff,
                y=0.61,
                showarrow=False,
                text= p_diff)
fig.update_layout(title_text = '%difference in 1-day retention between AB groups',
                 showlegend = False,
                 xaxis = dict(title ='Percentage of Difference'),
                 yaxis = dict(title = 'Density')
                 )
#fig.show()
iplot(fig, show_link=False)


#calculate the probablity that 1-day retention is greater when the gate is at level 30
print((boot_1d['diff']>p_diff).mean())
print('Probablity that 1-day retention is greater than observed difference when the gate is at level 30:', (boot_1d['diff']>p_diff).mean())

0.955
Probablity that 1-day retention is greater than observed difference when the gate is at level 30: 0.955


print('We cant reject Ho because p-value(0.961>0.05), the difference is insignificant.')

We cant reject Ho because p-value(0.961>0.05), the difference is insignificant.

	userid	sum_gamerounds	retention_1	retention_7
version
gate_30	44700	44700	44700	44700
gate_40	45489	45489	45489	45489

	userid	version	sum_gamerounds	retention_1	retention_7
0	116	gate_30	3	False	False
1	337	gate_30	38	True	False
2	377	gate_40	165	True	False
3	483	gate_40	1	False	False
4	488	gate_40	179	True	True